In February elections to the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, the incumbent Social Democratic Party (SPD)—in power since 2021—suffered a stinging loss, falling from first to third place and losing almost 40% of its vote share. Garnering only 16.4% of the nationwide vote, the result was the party’s worst in post-war Germany. The party lost ground across the nation, especially in industrial areas in former East Germany and the Rhine-Ruhr. In an even more worrying sign for the party, its support is concentrated in older age groups, with support among 18-34 year-olds languishing at 12%. Parties across Germany’s political spectrum siphoned votes from the SPD, with over two million moving to its center-right rival, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The three parties (SPD, Greens, and Free Democratic Party) that governed together under Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost their collective majority.
Despite these losses, the SPD still forms part of Germany’s governing coalition, as a junior partner to the CDU-CSU. The two parties have joined under CDU leader Friedrich Merz in what is known as a “grand coalition” or a “black-red coalition,” after the respective colors of the two parties. Coalitions of this type have been formed five times since the end of World War II. This coalition holds 328 out of 630 Bundestag seats, with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), February’s second-place finisher, forming the main opposition. Traditionally, the SPD’s role within the grand coalition (in which it has always been the junior partner) is to protect Germany’s extensive system of social security and assistance from cuts. This looks set to continue in the current government, with the SPD’s party website declaring that the coalition agreement maintains current pension levels and invests over 500 million Euros in social infrastructure. The SPD retains control of nine key ministries in Merz’s new cabinet, including the crucial posts of Finance Minister and Defense Minister.
In Germany’s states (Bundesländer), the SPD has a slightly stronger position. Out of 16 states the SPD holds the position of Minister-President in seven, one fewer than the CDU-CSU, while it is part of the governing coalition in 12. While the party suffered major losses last year in elections for the state assemblies (Landtag) of Thuringia and Saxony, it gained seats in Brandenburg under the leadership of popular SPD Minister-President Dietmar Woidke. In 2026, the party will have an opportunity to test its continued relevance in five state elections: Saxony-Anhalt, Rhineland-Palatinate, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Berlin and Baden-Württemburg. State elections are particularly important in Germany, because the governing coalition of each state sends representatives to the Bundesrat, which acts as the upper house of Germany’s legislature. If the SPD has continued success in state elections, it could use voting power in the Bundesrat to gain more leverage in its coalition with the CDU-CSU. Alternatively, if the Alternative für Deutschland continues to gain seats in state legislatures, as it did last year, it could build momentum for the next federal election and undermine the stability of the grand coalition. Something similar to this happened in 2005, when the CDU and FDP gained a Bundesrat majority, provoking the SPD-led Schröder government to call a federal election. In all five states holding elections next year, the SPD is polling at or below its last result, while the AfD is in first or second place in all but Berlin and the Rhineland-Palatinate.
Since 2021, the SPD has been co-led by Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil; however, former Chancellor Olaf Scholz was the party’s de facto head and most recognizable figure, both as Vice-Chancellor under Angel Merkel of the CDU and as Chancellor in his own right. Since the formation of Merz’s government on May 6, Scholz is no longer a member of the government. The most prominent SPD figure within the cabinet is now Klingbeil, who serves as Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister. Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (from the same town, Osnabrück, as Scholz) is also a notable figure. Both Pistorius and Woidke were discussed as possible replacements for Scholz as Chancellor prior to the federal election, when opinion polls showed the SPD faring poorly.
The ideological direction of SPD remains up for grabs. Klingbeil is a member of the Seeheimer Circle, a moderate, economically liberal faction of the SPD. Esken is a member of the Parliamentary Left, a more democratic-socialist faction which advocates alliances with the Greens and Die Linke, both of which lean further to the left. Scholz straddled the line between these two camps, starting out as a left-wing radical in the SPD’s youth movement but pursuing more moderate policies as Chancellor. It is unclear whether one of these groups will emerge as the main driver of the SPD’s policy line in the wake of the election defeat.
For now, the SPD’s fortunes will be tied to that of the grand coalition. The Merz government has already implemented some major reforms, such as relaxing Germany’s debt controls to allow for higher spending on defense without sacrificing social services. It remains to be seen whether these and other developments will increase support for the coalition before the next federal election, which will take place on or before March 26, 2029. Due to the relative stability of a two-party grand coalition, the government will likely last until then. In the meantime, opinion polls since February show the SPD maintaining its historically low support while the AfD’s projected vote share is increasing, mostly at the expense of the CDU-CSU.
