In 2024, it seemed as if a wave of popular discontent was set to topple moderate and center-left governments across the globe, often replacing them with populist, conservative parties whose presence had previously been marginal. In Western Europe, nationalist movements played on anxiety over immigration to capture more than one-fifth of the European Parliament in June elections. In France, Finland, and Portugal, far-right parties now hold the balance of power in divided parliaments, informally propping up more moderate conservative governments. The global shift culminated in the November election of former U.S. President Donald J. Trump, perhaps the defining figure of hard-right populism. However, the proverbial “wave” may have crested, likely in response to the actions of Trump’s new administration. In recent elections in Canada and Australia, conservatives who attempted to emulate some of Trump’s rhetoric were defeated by center-left incumbents who promised to resist the Trump administration’s threats of tariffs and, in Canada’s case, annexation.
Since 2015, Canada has been led by the centrist Liberal Party, under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The length of the Liberals’ incumbency and their political positions made them exactly the type of party that had been losing votes across the globe in 2024. For almost all of 2022, 2023 and 2024, the Liberals trailed the opposition Conservatives in polling, entering 2025 on average 25 points behind. One factor contributing to the apparent decline of the Liberals was the emerging cost-of-living crisis, with inflation reaching 8.1% in 2022. The post-pandemic inflation exacerbated Canada’s housing crisis, as the median home price rose more than 50 percent from 2020 to 2024. The economic situation, combined with Canada’s relatively high rate of immigration (despite relatively low levels of illegal immigration), made the country fertile territory for a populist movement. Conservative Pierre Poilievre, elected as party leader in 2022 and a member of Parliament since 2004, attempted to fill this void, promising to reduce taxes, slash government spending and foreign aid in particular, withhold funding from universities with policies he deems “woke”, cut the federal civil service, defund Canada’s national broadcaster, the CBC, and implement harsher criminal justice policies. While many of these pledges echo those of Trump prior to his election, there are some notable differences, such as Poilievre’s commitment to Ukraine and NATO and his support for free trade. Poilievre’s rhetoric also mirrors that of Trump to some extent, with his use of demeaning nicknames for political opponents (e.g., “Trust Fund Trudeau”, “Sellout Singh”) and his repeated invocation of “common sense” as justification for his policies. Poilievre earned praise from prominent figures on the American right, such as Elon Musk, who expressed support for Poilievre on X in January.
However, the qualities that once earned Poilievre conservative bona fides soon became a liability, as Trump’s public image in Canada worsened. Even before he was inaugurated, Trump had published plans to enact tariffs on Canada. The stated justification for the tariffs was that the country had failed to secure its borders and was a source of “unlawful migration and fentanyl flows” to the U.S. These tariffs became a reality in February, although after negotiations they were paused for 30 days. When the tariffs were re-enacted on March 3, Canada immediately responded with retaliatory measures, launching a “trade war” between the two neighbors. Additionally, Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of making Canada the 51st U.S. state, referring to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Governor” and attempting to raise doubt over the legitimacy of the U.S.-Canada border treaty. These statements fueled anti-U.S. sentiment in Canada, with many consumers voluntarily boycotting American goods and refraining from vacation in the U.S. The economic and political threats to the Canadian state by Trump, the arch-populist, began to damage Poilievre, who started pledging to defend Canada’s sovereignty in campaign rallies.
Another crucial factor allowed the Liberal Party to turn the tide: the unpopular Justin Trudeau resigned on January 9, allowing the election of a new Liberal leader and Prime Minister. In an internal Liberal election, former central banker Mark Carney won with over 80% of the vote. Sworn in as Prime Minister on March 14, he called a snap election for the House of Commons, Canada’s popularly elected legislature, after a little more than a week. By this point, Liberal fortunes had been rising: late in February, they began to overtake the Conservatives in public polling. Carney’s personal approval rating also rose, with his calm, businesslike demeanor and extensive economic experience appealing to many who sought a capable leader in the context of a possible trade war. Additionally, Carney was not a member of the previous government, allowing him to distance himself somewhat from their policies and unpopular image. By April 28, when the federal election was held, the Liberals grew their vote share by more than 11 percent, beating out the Conservatives by 2.5 percent. With the help of a few smaller left-wing parties, they now hold a parliamentary majority. In an especially embarrassing defeat for the Conservatives, party leader Poilievre narrowly lost his own seat in suburban Ottawa.
Australia’s election, held only 5 days after that of Canada, was not centered around Trump and the U.S. to quite the same degree, but a similar pattern took hold. Australia’s incumbent Labor government has only been in power since 2022, but they had been trailing or even with the opposition Liberal-National Coalition (Australia’s conservatives) since the summer of 2024, again in the context of high inflation and concerns over immigration. Coalition leader Peter Dutton, a former policeman, is not known for being as pugilistic as Trump or even Poilievre, but he has railed against “woke spending” and pledged to slash government jobs. However, like Poilievre, he struggled to distance himself from Trump. This became a liability, especially after Trump hit Australia with a 10 percent tariff on April 5 (later paused for 90 days). Incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese presented himself as an experienced, competent figure who could handle the tariff situation, and he capitalized on Dutton’s ideological closeness with Trump. On election day, Labor was re-elected in a surprise landslide, capturing what may be its largest majority ever, of 89 seats out of 151. In an echo of Canada’s election, Dutton lost his own seat, in suburban Brisbane.
Australia and Canada are not the only two examples of an election influenced by Trump. In Germany, Elon Musk’s support for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) may have dented its support. There are also some outliers to the trend of leftist incumbents being buoyed by Trump—in England’s local elections last week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party lost almost 200 councillors and Reform UK, a far-right party headed by the controversial and bombastic Nigel Farage, surged to first place. In Romania, a nationalist politician won the first round of the presidential election. As the trade war develops, the durability of the “Trump effect” on elections in the Western world may be gauged through elections later this month in Portugal and in Norway in September. In both, the incumbents (liberal-conservative and social-democratic, respectively) are currently favored to win.
