This is the first installment of a biweekly column covering the latest developments in the United States presidential elections. The column will run until all races are called, which could be days or potentially even weeks after November 5.
Presidential
Despite a series of historical disruptions to the campaign cycle, such as the attempted assassination and criminal conviction of one candidate and the surprise withdrawal of the other, the presidential race enters mid-September in a dead heat. The post-convention polling bump for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, appears to have faded somewhat, with a New York Times/Siena College poll on September 8 putting former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, one point ahead with potential voters in the national race. Most other recent polls have put Harris slightly ahead, but almost all show Trump as within the margin of error. Swing state polling is similarly close.
The consensus from pundits and viewers alike is that the presidential debate on September 10 found Harris victorious, as she repeatedly baited Trump into personal attacks and knocked him off track. The debate seems to have swung voters about a point in Harris’s direction – a tiny fraction, to be sure, but it definitely helps in a historically close race. If Harris repeats her performance in a second debate, it could make her the odds-on favorite for the presidency. However, the debate was not a disaster for Trump, as Harris obviously ducked certain questions and Trump refrained from overt outbursts.
One bright spot for the Harris campaign is the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut its key interest rate by a larger-than-expected 0.5% on September 18. While the economic effects of this decision may not be felt by consumers until after the election, this decision reinforces the perception that inflation is under control and that the Fed will act to prevent a recession.
On a state-by-state level, Harris’s attention to the Rust Belt and the Midwest may be paying off. Harris’s strongest swing state so far has been Wisconsin, where she is up almost three points in the polling (although Wisconsin polls have a history of underestimating Republicans). Moreover, a recent poll in Iowa put her within four points of Trump – no easy feat in a state which Biden lost by more than 8 points in 2020.
Gubernatorial
Despite New Hampshire having voted Democratic in presidential elections since 2004, it has had a Republican governor, Chris Sununu, since 2016. Sununu, the son of a former governor, gained popularity as a moderate Republican who could garner support from Democrats as well as Republicans. When Sununu declined to run for re-election in 2024, Democrats gained a chance to reclaim the governorship. Their path got much harder on September 12 when Republican voters nominated Kelly Ayotte, a moderate former senator who was narrowly defeated in her 2016 re-election bid by Maggie Hassan, the Democratic governor who preceded Sununu. Ayotte holds a sizable lead in polling against Joyce Craig, the Manchester mayor who Democrats have nominated for the governorship.
The other two mildly competitive gubernatorial races, in Washington and North Carolina, appear increasingly likely to be won by Democratic nominees Bob Ferguson and Josh Stein, respectively. Both are the current Attorney Generals of their state. North Carolina’s race in particular is notable for the Republican nominee, Mark Robinson. Robinson has been accused of anti-semitism, particularly after posts on social media, in which he quoted Hitler. He has gained attention in recent months for saying at a campaign stop that “some folks need killing.”
